With the use of recreational and psychoactive drugs still on the rise, many researchers and policy makers are looking for the best methods to cut off supply and minimize demand. Beyond supply and demand, training must be based on the drugs that are most likely to be encountered. An article in The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse highlights a method of “forecasting” to help focus in on what is most likely to happen with the newest recreational¬†substances. Forecasting will help to focus training on the substances that are on the rise and highlight emerging new drugs.

“Using a review of literature, published case reports, and legal studies, Dr. John Stogner of UNC Charlotte, proposes a five step forecasting method. The method relies on the availability of a potential user base, the costs of the drug (legal and otherwise), the subjective experience, the substance’s dependence potential, and the overall ease of acquisition.”

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